Lebanon has been on a downward trajectory characterised by economic collapse, increased political and sectarian polarization, and a state of general chaos since the mass uprisings of October 2019. Intra-Lebanese tensions have risen considerably in the intervening period: Armed clashes over basic resources have become the norm, the state’s inability to provide basic services has fuelled popular anger, protests, and violent riots, and an eroded security apparatus has resulted in increased crime and a corresponding rise in community policing and vigilantism. Meanwhile, unaddressed grievances have led to intense armed clashes, most notably those recently witnessed in Tayyouneh and Khalde. In light of these developments, COAR has been commissioned by an unnamed client to analyse the likely trajectory of potential conflict in Lebanon, with a specific focus on several selected areas, namely, Tripoli, Bourj Barajne camp, Khalde and Central Bekaa.