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COAR’s field team in Libya provides in-depth insight to support donors and response actor programming. With more than three years experience tracking the changing political and context landscape, COAR’s Libya team provides clients with bespoke products ranging from regular and flash reporting, early warning, area profiles, stakeholder mapping, and scenario planning.
Libya’s elections might enable the country to break from a cycle of violence and ill-fated provisional governments. Hostility to change is pronounced, however, and has already caused the postponement of Libya’s legislative elections, obstacles to the performance of parliamentary elections, and complications arising from lack of acceptance of the legal framework for presidential elections. If the GNU fails to reach consensus on the distribution of power, its fragile legitimacy is unlikely to survive the challenges of those that would seek alternative forms of governance. Public disaffection with the transition will grow, political differences will almost certainly deepen, and violence may once again erupt.
Libyan elections are scheduled for December, yet an ongoing spat over electoral procedures is already threatening to delay the vote. The Government of National Unity’s legitimacy may hang in the balance. COAR’s Libya Monthly Report takes an in-depth look at the impact an electoral delay may have on civil-military affairs. Also addressed in the report are the month’s most important developments for conflict, stability, and humanitarian affairs, including possible detente as eastern Libya’s leading figures find common ground over the government’s budget, a surge in COVID cases, clashes in Tripoli, and much more.
Armed factions in Libya prey on the insecurities of young men and boys, presenting militancy as a fast-track to manhood, an appealing prospect in the conflict-affected state. By analysing armed group propaganda, this report sheds light on military recruitment and presents insights for demobilisation and stabilisation activities. Too often, gender-sensitive research focuses exclusively on women. This report offers a much-needed alternative.