Table of Content
Double Trouble: Southern Syria Erupts on Two Fronts
In Depth Analysis
Tensions in southern Syria have flared as violent eruptions in the governorates of Dar’a and As-Sweida demonstrate two variations on the same themes: chronic instability and state fragmentation. Protests broke out across As-Sweida Governorate after Military Security officials ran roughshod over communal sensibilities by insulting a prominent Druze elder, prompting intervention from the Presidential Palace in an attempt to pacify the community and preserve a workable accomodation with the region. Meanwhile, in Tafas, Dar’a Governorate, a confrontation has emerged in response to the 4th Division’s demands that the Central Committee exile six unreconciled commanders of former rebel groups to opposition-held northern Syria. As of writing, neither of these flare-ups has been quieted.
The insult

Civilian protest against military escalation in Tafas. Source: Horan Free League.
Same but different
Syria Update
Double Trouble: Southern Syria Erupts on Two Fronts
Whole Of Syria Review

1. Reform Measures Give NGOs More Room as the State Falters
2. Central Bank Circulates 5,000 SYP Note, Highest Value Yet
Runaway inflation fears
3. SDF Arrests Teachers for Using Government of Syria Curriculum
4. Security Situation in Al-Hol Camp Worsens
5. Siege of Al-Hasakeh and Quamishli Continues
Key Readings
The Open Source Annex highlights key media reports, research, and primary documents that are not examined in the Syria Update. For a continuously updated collection of such records, searchable by geography, theme, and conflict actor, and curated to meet the needs of decision-makers, please see COAR’s comprehensive online search platform, Alexandrina, at the link below.
Alexandrina
Note: These records are solely the responsibility of their creators. COAR does not necessarily endorse — or confirm — the viewpoints expressed by these sources.
Forcibly Disappeared in Syrian Detention Centers
What Does it Say?: The report builds on interviews with the families of Syrian detainees and quantitative data to present a holistic picture of detention procedures.
Reading Between the Lines: The report is a useful quantification of processes that are, by their nature, opaque and poorly understood. Among its most troubling findings is the role of monetary extortion. The report surmises that Syria’s prison complexes have generated some $900 million in revenues, paid by interested parties for information about detainees or for visitation privileges.
Source: Association of Detainees & the Missing in Sednaya Prison
Language: English Date: December 2020
Signs that the 2021 Budget Heralds Greater Austerity for Syrian Citizens
What Does it Say?: Although the 2021 Syria budget has increased to a record 4.5 billion SYP, its dollar value is at an all-time low of $2.9 billion, suggesting that hardship and austerity are in store for Syrians.
Reading Between the Lines: It is imperative for the international Syria response to evolve new approaches to Syria’s fiscal reality. Policymakers’ pursuit of leverage over Damascus will apply greater pressure to the civilian population.
Source: Enab Baladi Language: Arabic Date: 3 January 2021
10 Points from Syria’s 2020 Economic Events
What Does it Say?: The article lays out 10 key trends (all negative) in Syria’s economic proceedings during 2020.
Reading Between the Lines: Syria’s relative military calm has coincided with a significant increase in humanitarian needs based on other factors, including economic destitution and state collapse.
Source: Kassioun Language: Arabic Date: 2 January 2021
Humanitarian Disaster Looms Over Camps During Winter
What Does it Say?: IDP camps in Idleb are subject to intense flooding each winter, damaging tents, causing great difficulties, and impeding aid work.
Reading Between the Lines: Winterization is a routine challenge in Syria. As the number of IDPs continues to increase and the winter months get colder, these hardships worsen. Moreover, many camp residents must endure this struggle on an annual basis.
Source: Al-Monitor Language: English Date: 3 January 2021
Al-Hajar Al-Aswad: Allowing Residents and Homeowners Entry To Restore Destroyed Homes Is Out of the Question
What Does it Say?: The Government of Syria has allowed some residents of partially destroyed homes to return to Al-Hajar Al-Aswad, while people whose homes have been destroyed are prohibited from returning.
Reading Between the Lines: The issue highlights the reality that for individuals — as for aid implementers — permissions are a powerful tool in the hands of the government.
Source: Damascus Voice Language: Arabic Date: 4 January 2021
What’s the Benefit for Russia From the Reopening of the International Highway (M-4)?
What Does it Say?: Russia has reopened sections of the M4 Highway after a month of closure due to military developments.
Reading Between the Lines: The economic situation in Syria is getting worse. The opening, even if partial, of the M4 may facilitate some trade.
Source: Eqtsad Language: Arabic Date: 4 January 2021
Redefining Victory in America’s War Against the Islamic State in Syria
What Does it Say?: The “enduring defeat” of IS — the linchpin of U.S. activities in Syria — is ill-defined and unrealistic.
Reading Between the Lines: Redefining this objective to fit ground realities will be a critical early test of the Biden administration. Policymakers must bear in mind that IS seized on an opportunity created by the near-collapse of the Syrian state — an outcome that is now the implicit intermediate goal of U.S. objectives in Syria.
Source: War on the Rock Language: English Date: 5 January 2021
The American Envoy Visits the UAE, To Confirm the Commitment To Pressure the Assad Regime
What Does it Say?: The U.S. special envoy to Syria met with the UAE and Jordan in order to secure assurances that the latter two countries remain committed to a maximum economic and political pressure campaign to push for a political solution in Syria.
Reading Between the Lines: The UAE has long been among the regional players most eager to restore commercial ties with Syria. Changes to its stance vis-à-vis Damascus may trigger a broader thawing of relations with the Syrian government.
Source: Alsouria Language: Arabic Date: 3 January 2021
Extension of Assad as President … Why and for What?
What Does it Say?: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is working toward extending his time in office by another seven years. He has already served 20 years as president.
Reading Between the Lines: Having achieved the greater part of a military victory to maintain his hold on power, al-Assad is unlikely to step down in a political process, regardless of pressure against him.
Source: An-Nahar Language: Arabic Date: 4 January 2021
Biden and the Syrian ‘Kurdish Down Payment’
What Does it Say?: The article argues that the U.S. is in a position to negotiate political autonomy for the Kurdish region in Syria with the Syrian state.
Reading Between the Lines: Such an about-face is unlikely. The U.S. has previously rejected Kurdish autonomy in northeast Syria. To change position now would, in effect, reduce active pressure on Damascus by removing a key point of leverage.
Source: Asharq Al Awsat Language: Arabic Date: 27 December 2020
An Exchange of Detainees Between the Asayish and the Syrian Government is Taking Place Today With Russian mediation in Qamishli
What Does it Say?: A prisoner exchange between the Asayish and the Government of Syria took place in Quamishli under Russian mediation.
Reading Between the Lines: Negotiations between Damascus and the Self-Administration have stalled, but functional cooperation on the tactical level continues.
Source: North Press Agency Language: Arabic Date: 6 January 2021
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