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Captagon's shifting geopolitics:
How an illicit regional trade is evolving after Assad
Join us on 12 November 2025 for a virtual panel discussion on the captagon economy's evolving role in the Middle East's political and security landscape.
Captagon is at the centre of a transnational illicit trade flow with deep political and security implications. Once a multi-billion-dollar narcotics economy rooted in Syria's state-sponsored industrial production networks under Assad, the Captagon trade is now in flux—disrupted by regime change yet driven by sustained demand in the Middle East and beyond. As criminal networks seek to reconstitute production in the region and beyond, regional states and their international partners are grappling not only with the security implications of Captagon flows, but with the economic crisis that facilitates illicit trade and with wider societal challenges fuelled by its consumption.
This panel will bring together regional experts to unpack the findings of recent XCEPT research from COAR in Syria and the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Lebanon, alongside ongoing research by New Lines Institute in the region. Panellists will draw on recent field and remote research and offer a forward-looking view of the Captagon economy's evolving role in the region's political and security landscape. The discussion will examine how regional and global geopolitical shifts are shaping Captagon supply chains, considering implications for regional stability and policy response as illicit networks adapt and societal risks from narcotics consumption compound.
This event will be held online via Microsoft Teams. To attend please register using the form above.
Speakers:
Ian Larson
An independent researcher focusing on illicit economies, humanitarian-development assistance, and post-conflict stabilization in the greater Middle East. He is co-founder of the Security Policy Reform Institute and has researched and published on captagon widely since 2019.
Dr. Nick Krohley
Founder of FrontLine Advisory, a Switzerland-based consultancy to governments, corporates, and civil society organizations active in conflict environments. He also leads the Resistance Hub for Irregular Warfare Initiative, Europe.
Dr Mohanad Hage Ali
Deputy Director for Research at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. An academic and political journalist, he holds a PhD and MSc in Conflict Studies from the London School of Economics and Political Science.
Caroline Rose
A director at the New Lines Institute, where she leads research on defence, security, and illicit trades in Syria and the Middle East. A former adjunct professor at Georgetown and head of the Power Vacuums Program, she has briefed governments on the captagon trade and authored reports for the UNODC and EU. She has testified before the British Parliament and was named to the Middle East Policy Center’s 2025 40 Under 40 Awards.
Moderator:
Alexander Fischer
A London-based Senior Research Manager with XCEPT, with over a decade of experience in conflict response across the Middle East and West Africa. He oversees research on stability, governance, and cross-border conflict dynamics in borderland regions including COAR’s recent research on captagon in the Levant.
Our Clients
The content compiled and presented by COAR Global LTD is by no means exhaustive and does not reflect COAR’s formal position, political or otherwise, on the aforementioned topics. The information, assessments, and analysis provided by COAR are only to inform humanitarian and development programs and policy.